The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence

This paper investigates the effects of oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, oil inventory demand shocks, and global economic activity shocks on state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation in the US. We use oil shock data following the work of Baumeister and Hamilton (2019) and estimate both linear and non-linear impulse responses using a lag-augmented local projections model in a panel context. Our results from a linear model show that both supply and demand-side oil shocks have a statistically significant impact on both types of inflation. While supply, global economic activity, and demand shocks have a greater impact on tradable inflation, non-tradable inflation responds more strongly to inventory shocks. Further, the non-linear model results provide evidence of heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of impact between high- and low-oil dependence regimes. Non-tradable inflation is more sensitive to nearly all components of oil price shocks in the high-oil dependence regime.     

Debt Overhang and Lack of Lender's Commitment

The debt overhang of sovereigns or firms is modeled in the recent literature as a constrained efficient outcome of dynamic debt contracts under the lack of the borrower's commitment, where debt relief is not Pareto-improving. The early literature observes another type of debt overhang where the borrower is discouraged from expending effort, anticipating the lender to take all output ex post. We show that this inefficiency is due to the lack of the lender's commitment and debt relief is Pareto-improving. Nevertheless, debt overhang may persist, as frictional bargaining over debt relief can take a long time.     

中国建设用地集约利用变化及分区管控研究

研究目的:基于经济发展和资源禀赋的分异划分建设用地管控分区,并据此提出区域差别化的管控策略。研究方法:运用全国省际面板数据构建计量模型分析不同经济发展水平下建设用地集约度的变化规律,通过资源禀赋指标与经济发展指标叠加划分建设用地集约管控区域;再运用因子分析法研究集约度变化的影响因素及其区域差异。研究结果:(1)建设用地集约度增加量与经济发展水平符合库兹涅茨曲线规律,随着经济发展水平的提高,集约度的增加量先呈上升趋势,当人均GDP超过69251元/人后转为下降趋势,建设用地集约利用水平最终将趋于稳定。(2)全国可划分为4类建设用地管控区域:优化调整区、重点发展区、适度发展区和内涵挖潜区。(3)建设用地利用集约度变化的主要影响因素有社会经济、资源供给、产业结构和配置方式4个方面。研究结论:应根据区域影响因子作用差异,从增量供给、门槛约束、存量挖潜、市场建设等方面制定区域差别化的集约管控策略。     

基于环境库兹涅茨理论的经济发展与用水效率关系形态研究——来自我国2002—2013期间31个省份面板数据的证据

以2002—2013年我国31个省份的人均GDP、用水强度为变量，环境库兹涅茨曲线为基础构建面板模型，分别研究全国和三大地带的经济发展与用水效率的关系。结果表明：全国、东北及东部地带、中西部地带、远西部地带依次形成倒N型、倒N型、U型和U型的变化趋势。之后，从规模效应、技术效应、结构效应以及规制与投资四个角度入手，解释三大地带及其具体省份用水效率和经济发展的关系形态。     

一种新的光伏发电预测模型的设计

为了对光伏发电的输出功率进行预测,本文分析光伏发电的影响因素,提出了一种基于太阳辐射功率曲线匹配的预测模型。该模型将历史数据按时段进行分解,查找与当前时段太阳辐射功率曲线最为匹配的数据,以此构建并训练BP神经网络,来预测未来3个小时内的太阳辐射功率,能够较好的实现预测目标。实验结果表明,该模型有较高的精度,可对电网调度起到重要的指导作用。     

Poverty decompositions with counterfactual income and inequality dynamics

Traditional poverty accounting decomposes changes in a country's poverty headcount ratio into changes in income and inequality. We argue that this approach is unsatisfactory from the perspective of policy analysis because it compares a country in two points of time without taking the country's initial situation, and hence its potential for poverty reduction, into account. We thus suggest comparing traditional poverty decompositions with a counterfactual situation. This counterfactual indicates what a country starting from its initial situation could be expected to achieve in terms of income, inequality, and, hence, poverty developments. We construct those counterfactuals by modeling income and inequality trends characterized by convergence and a “Kuznets” relationship between inequality and development. Parameters in those relationships are estimated using PovcalNet survey data from 144 countries and we construct our counterfactual poverty predictions for 71 developing countries. While there is overall a tight relationship between actual developments and counterfactuals, we identify several cases, where both deviate from each other and discuss the policy implications. We also check for commonalities in differently performing countries and find that those who fell particularly short of expectations often underwent political transition and state fragility.     

一种改进的机载卫通天线跟踪算法

在圆锥扫描实现过程分析的基础上，提出了一种改进的机载卫通天线跟踪算法。结合天线方位、俯仰方向图及其三维重构法，对该跟踪算法进行了理论推导。运用Matlab曲线拟合仿真，给出了天线跟踪调整方向和角度的计算公式，最后分析了实际应用中需要注意的一些问题。飞行试验表明，该改进的圆锥扫描跟踪技术提高了天线伺服系统的跟踪精度和跟踪速度，很好地满足了机载卫星通信的需求。     

Do uninformed traders move prices? Evidence from the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing program

Using the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ETF purchasing program as an exogenous shock to stock demand, we find that stocks with a higher BoJ demand experience higher positive abnormal returns on BoJ ETF purchase dates, which only partially revert in the long term. Our findings support the hypothesis that stocks have a downward-sloping demand curve, implying that uninformed traders can cause a permanent shift in price.     

铁碳合金相图的计算机处理技术

介绍了“铁碳合金相图ＣＡＩ课件”中的图形处理技术，阐述了拟合曲线的方法、曲线的绘制及其他相关处理技术。